In 2050, half of the world's electricity generation was supp
Source : 未知 Time : 2018-03-06 14:53
With the increase of technology cost advantages such as wind power, photovoltaic and energy storage, the share of global coal electricity will be squeezed further.
In June 20th, the BNEF's latest global power system analysis report, the 2018 new energy market long-term outlook (NEO), said that by 2050, photovoltaic and wind power will account for about 50% of the world's total electricity, and the ratio of coal to electricity will be reduced from 38% to 11%.
According to the report, the proportion of renewable energy in many power markets will increase significantly in the future. By 2050, renewable energy will account for 87% of the total electricity generated in Europe, 55% in the United States, 62% in China and 75% in India.
According to the report, 2018-2050 years, a global investment of $11 trillion and 500 billion is invested in new power generating units, of which $8 trillion and 400 billion (about 73%) is used for wind power and photovoltaic, and the other $1 trillion and 500 billion (about 17.86%) is used for other zero emission technologies, such as hydropower and nuclear power. BNEF believes that these investments will increase global PV installed capacity by 17 times and wind power installed capacity by 6 times.
Statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show that in 2017, the installed capacity of the global PV market reached 99GW, with a total installed capacity of 402GW. In 2017, the installed capacity of the global wind power market was about 52.57GW, with a total installed capacity of 539.58GW.
The increase in the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic is mainly due to the rapid declines in their own cost and the decrease in battery energy storage cost that provides flexibility for the power system.
The report predicts that in the next 2018-2050 years, the LCOE of the Xinguang power station will be reduced by 71%, and the cost of onshore wind power will be reduced by 58%. The LCOE of these two technologies decreased by 77% and 41% respectively in 2009-2018 years.
The leveling cost of electricity covers all the cost elements of a new generation project, including development and construction costs, operation and maintenance, fuel and financing costs.
According to the report on the leveled electricity cost (LCOE) issued by BNEF in March this year, the first half of 2018, the global land wind level quasi electric power cost was 55 US dollars / megawatts, down 18% compared to the same period, and the cost of non tracking solar photovoltaic quasi leveling electric power also dropped by 18%, reaching $70 / megawatt.
China, according to statistics from the photovoltaic industry association, has seen a total decrease of 90% in China's photovoltaic power generation costs over the past 2007-2017 years. By the end of 2017, the investment cost of the leading domestic photovoltaic power system dropped to about 5 yuan / watt, and the cost of the electricity was reduced to 0.5-0.7 yuan / kWh by the end of the year.
The report predicts that China will continue to maintain its leading position in the global wind and solar market in the future. By 2050, China will have 1.1TW's PV installed and 1TW wind power, which is equivalent to 21% and 33% of the global total.
In addition, China's coal power and emissions will peak in 2030, when the permeability of renewable energy in China's power system will reach 39%, and the capacity of power generation will reach 23GW.
In the long run, coal and electricity will become the biggest losers. From the perspective of electricity cost, coal and electricity will not compete with wind power and photovoltaic. From the perspective of system flexibility, coal and electricity will not be able to compete with gas power generation and energy storage. In the end, most of the coal and electricity assets will be squeezed out of the market. ElenaGiannakopoulou, chief energy economist at Peng Boxin energy finance, said.
The report predicts that in the 2017-2050 years, coal consumption in the global power generation industry will drop by 56% and natural gas consumption will increase by 14%.
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