BNEF: it is estimated that the proportion of solar and wind
Source : 未知 Time : 2018-04-19 14:53
International Solar PV network: in its 2018 new energy outlook, New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicts that the global solar and wind energy market will surge in 2050.
Due to the sharp decline in the cost of the battery, BNEF is expected to reduce the cost of generating electricity by 71% by 2050, and solar and wind power will account for half of the global power generation. At the end of March, BNEF calculated that the cost of solar flat production in the first half of 2018 was $70 / megawatt.
BNEF said the world is expected to invest $11 trillion and 500 billion in new additional electricity from 2018 to 2050, of which $8 trillion and 400 billion is for solar and wind power, and $1 trillion and 300 billion for natural gas.
Although solar and wind power will account for 50% of the global average power generation by 2050, regional differences will still exist, and Europe is expected to reach 87% for renewable energy, 55% in the United States, 62% in China and 75% in India.
It is said that the penetration rate of the distributed generation system in Australia is very high. By the middle of this century, photovoltaic and battery will account for 43% of the total power capacity.
The focus of the BNEF report is the price of the battery. BNEF said that since 2010, the price of lithium ion storage has dropped by 80% per megawatt. Due to the accelerated development of electric vehicle manufacturing in 1920s, battery prices are expected to decline further. Logan Goldie-Scott, the head of BNEF energy storage, said: "we expect the battery price to fall to $96 / kWh by 2050, to 70 US dollars / kWh by 2030."
He added, "the leading markets for electric car batteries today are China, the United States, South Korea and Japan, and we expect to further expand the capacity of the battery manufacturing plants in the next few years. At present, most of the European battery factories are concentrated in Eastern Europe.
By the end of May, BNEF predicted that by 2030, electric vehicles would account for 44% of all new cars in Europe, 41% in China, 34% in the United States, 17% in Japan, and 7% in India.
Seb Henbest, head of BNEF in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said: "the arrival of cheap energy storage batteries will mean that more and more people can get electricity from solar and wind energy. Even in the absence of wind and no sunlight, energy storage batteries can supply electricity continuously, and the result will be renewable energy. Increasingly, the market for coal, natural gas and nuclear power is being consumed. "
In 2017, the annual fixed investment capacity of the global fixed energy storage system was about $2 billion, and the new grid scale energy storage capacity reached a record 1.17 gigawatts. Henbest predicts that by 2050, the world will invest $548 billion in the battery market.
The biggest loser
In the latest report, BNEF further predicts that as the share of solar and wind power increases, the share of coal will fall, and coal is expected to drop from 38% to 11% in the global power market.
"In the long run, coal will be the biggest loser," commented Elena Giannakopoulou, head of BNEF energy economics. Cheap renewable energy will be the main force of the future power system, and coal will be squeezed out of the electricity market.
By 2050, the use of gas-fired power plants will increase by 15%, but its global share of electricity is expected to drop from 21% to 15%.
At the end of March, another report from BNEF pointed out that renewable energy and energy storage batteries are three major threats to the fossil fuel industry, particularly in the provision of large power generation, dispatching of power generation and the flexibility of power grids and electricity.
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